دراسة قياسية لأثر تقلبات سعر الصرف على القدرة الشرائية في الجزائر ( 1990-2022)

Abstract

Abstract : This study aims to analyze and measure the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on purchasing power in Algeria during the period 1990-2022. The significance of this study lies in assessing the impact on purchasing power by monitoring changes in real wages as a direct result of exchange rate fluctuations. The study employs an inductive approach, linear (ARDL) and nonlinear (NARDL) methodologies, as well as the Toda and Yamamoto causality test to examine the causal relationship between variables. The findings reveal several key outcomes: a significant negative short-term impact of exchange rates on purchasing power, a logical long-term equilibrium relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable, excluding the money supply. The study also identifies an asymmetric effect of exchange rates on purchasing power, and a unidirectional causal relationship from the exchange rate of the dinar and imported inflation rate towards real wages as an indicator of purchasing power. These results clearly reflect the near-total dependence of the Algerian economy on hydrocarbon export revenues, with insufficient diversification to shield against oil price volatility shocks. This situation has led Algeria to repeatedly devalue its national currency in an attempt to achieve internal and external balances. However, this approach has adversely affected the national currency's value and its purchasing power, especially with Algeria's open economy and heavy reliance on imports, while local production remains weak and unable to meet market needs. Based on these results, the study recommends efficiently managing fiscal and monetary policies, effectively diversifying the economy by supporting promising sectors, expanding social protection programs, and enhancing market efficiency. Keywords: Purchasing Power, Inflation, Real Wages, Exchange Rate, ARDL Methodology, NARDL Methodology